A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."